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Forecasting Supply and Demand in California’s Cap and Trade Market

Today we are taking the unusual step of posting in advance a draft paper that will be presented at the Energy Institute’s POWER research conference on March 22.

The paper is “Forecasting Demand and Supply in California’s Cap and Trade Market” by Elizabeth M. Bailey (University of California, Berkeley), Severin Borenstein (University of California, Berkeley), James Bushnell (University of California, Davis), Frank Wolak (Stanford University), and Matthew Zaragoza (University of California, Berkeley).  Because the paper presents estimates of possible future prices in the market, we felt it was important to make sure that all potential market participants had equal access to it.

The paper will be posted at noon PDT at the website for the POWER conference,



Severin Borenstein View All

Severin Borenstein is E.T. Grether Professor of Business Administration and Public Policy at the Haas School of Business. He has published extensively on the oil and gasoline industries, electricity markets and pricing greenhouse gases. His current research projects include the economics of renewable energy, economic policies for reducing greenhouse gases, and alternative models of retail electricity pricing. In 2012-13, he served on the Emissions Market Assessment Committee that advised the California Air Resources Board on the operation of California’s Cap and Trade market for greenhouse gases. Currently, he chairs the California Energy Commission's Petroleum Market Advisory Committee and is a member of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District's Advisory Council.

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