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Forecasting Supply and Demand in California’s Cap and Trade Market

Today we are taking the unusual step of posting in advance a draft paper that will be presented at the Energy Institute’s POWER research conference on March 22.

The paper is “Forecasting Demand and Supply in California’s Cap and Trade Market” by Elizabeth M. Bailey (University of California, Berkeley), Severin Borenstein (University of California, Berkeley), James Bushnell (University of California, Davis), Frank Wolak (Stanford University), and Matthew Zaragoza (University of California, Berkeley).  Because the paper presents estimates of possible future prices in the market, we felt it was important to make sure that all potential market participants had equal access to it.

The paper will be posted at noon PDT at the website for the POWER conference,



Severin Borenstein View All

Severin Borenstein is Professor of the Graduate School in the Economic Analysis and Policy Group at the Haas School of Business and Faculty Director of the Energy Institute at Haas. He received his A.B. from U.C. Berkeley and Ph.D. in Economics from M.I.T. His research focuses on the economics of renewable energy, economic policies for reducing greenhouse gases, and alternative models of retail electricity pricing. Borenstein is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, MA. He served on the Board of Governors of the California Power Exchange from 1997 to 2003. During 1999-2000, he was a member of the California Attorney General's Gasoline Price Task Force. In 2012-13, he served on the Emissions Market Assessment Committee, which advised the California Air Resources Board on the operation of California’s Cap and Trade market for greenhouse gases. In 2014, he was appointed to the California Energy Commission’s Petroleum Market Advisory Committee, which he chaired from 2015 until the Committee was dissolved in 2017. From 2015-2020, he served on the Advisory Council of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Since 2019, he has been a member of the Governing Board of the California Independent System Operator.

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